#fraud poll

[ultimatefraudpoll]

[lemonlinelights]

@shortguyswag please vote for Hannibal Chau help he’s being slaughtered

[hinamie]

surprise it's yuri!!!in 2024

[ao3topshipsbracket]

now that it's been five months, can I point out something really funny that I don't think anybody noticed?

so you may remember that round 2 was notorious for the voter fraud that happened in blackbonnet vs stucky. some people (on both sides!) found the whole thing hilarious; some people (again, on both sides!) got really, really unreasonably angry.

the graph looked like this.

now, that's a very sudden and noticeable spike there at the end; this was definitely a coordinated effort and it was definitely to some degree fraud. there's screenshots of a job listing on sproutgigs to prove it. but look at the rest of the graph! that's fairly natural-looking— no enormous spikes, no stopping and starting. there's bumps, of course, because sometimes you get reblogged by someone with lots of followers, and there's upsets, but there aren't cliffs. for the most part, except for that sudden bend at the end, this is pretty normal voter behavior.

people joked about the fraud in this poll for weeks afterwards. "hey, where's the award for most voter fraud?" people said.

well.

the award for most voter fraud does not go to stucky vs blackbonnet. it goes to this absolute fucking nonsense:

like, look at that. look at those long stretches where almost nobody was voting crimeboys. look at the sudden jumps, and look at how suddenly they end. in the earlier sections you can see the little pauses where whoever was frauding took a break to rest their wrists and get a snack.

I don't know what I think the takeaway here is. you could say this is a story about how accusations of voter fraud don't track voter fraud, they track controversy. you could say this is a story about how if you don't have a graph right in front of you, it is significantly harder to identify voter fraud than you think it is. both of those are even true.

but personally, I like to look at it as a post about how if you really try, you can chart human passion. and I think that's beautiful.

[hr-hottie]

Stolen from an internet comment:

I mean think about it. Republicans got the endorsement of almost nobody. Kid Rock and Hulk Hogan were their front runners. Vance’s approval rating was like 30%. They had so many people vocally against them from media to celebrities to public figures.

Then in swoops the richest guy in the world who goes full bananas MAGA and puts his entire reputation on the line for Trump’s promise of a seat in the White House. Why risk it all unless you knew that promise was going to happen?

Why did Trump routinely say to not bother voting because they had all the votes? Why did Trump insist the only way Dems would win is if they cheated, is it because he knew he rigged it already so literally the only way Harris could win is if she somehow cheated and undid/redid the rigging? What was the “little secret”? Why did it seem like nobody on Trump’s team was excited to win and they took the stage like nothing happened, is it because they knew it was going to happen? How did states like Florida get called almost instantaneously? Why were there numerous bomb threats from Russia at only heavily Democratic polling stations? Why was there numerous reports of tabulators malfunctioning at only heavily Democratic polling stations? Why was every single person who has accurately predicted elections over the last 5-10-15-20+ years wrong? Not one or two, all of them were wrong, how?

How is it that none of the heinous stuff Trump did matter? Jan 6, felonies, racism, misogyny, questioning when Harris turned black in front of a room of black people, threatening to jail or kill people that didn’t support him, calling Puerto Ricans garbage, calling the military losers and suckers, saying Haitian immigrants are eating dogs, I mean you name it. How can he do all of the stuff over the last 4 years that would have sunk any politician’s career dead in the water and yet he gained supporters from literally everywhere?

How does sentiment analysis show Democrats with the highest voter enthusiasm and engagement since Obama and yet deliver an absolute abysmal showing in the election? How does Harris/Walz sellout enormous stadiums multiple times a day all over the country while Trump can barely fill a 2,000 seat auditorium, yet that translates into not even winning the popular vote?

Maybe they didn’t cheat. But you ask yourself the above questions and you really start to wonder if they did…

[girlbossdean]

j2 stans starting beef with phannies of all people, what is this, a crossover episode?

[theminecraftbee]

okay genuinely fascinating thing to me: despite the degree to which doing voter fraud became a meme, every poll/survey of people taken asking "did you do voter fraud?" has the answer being no for the vast majority of people. like, even after we, the mods, basically went 'we are not forbidding fraud and are tacitly encouraging it' people still didn't. and some of that had to be like me, ie, mostly laziness, right? but also it's FASCINATING to me that even given the fact we all said "you can break the rules all you want" most people didn't break the rules like what does that say psychologically i'm so. curious.

[valtsv]

thrilled to announce that you can now become a yaoi war profiteer thanks to tumblr polls

[poorly-drawn-mdzs]

Results from the ‘Who is the tallest MDZS Character poll! Thank you all for voting!

[countriesgame]

Please reblog for a bigger sample size!

If you have any fun fact about Italy, please tell us and I'll reblog it!

[ultimatefraudpoll]

[lemonlinelights]

HI GUYS! The @ultimatefraudpoll is up and running and Hannibal Chau is in it!

Vote for Hannibal Chau!

[rpftourney]

what the fuck is ryliver and how are they winning over cockles and how does that poll have 12000 votes right now...

well, 911/buddie is the new tumblr fave + wincest shippers HATE her (cockles/destiel/misha collins) + possible voter fraud idk

[ao3topshipsbracket]

Bonus statistics: the Really Funny Graph Awards

As I've pointed out before, it's often hard to notice voter fraud— even in large quantities— if you can't see, not just how many votes came in, but when and in what patterns. Accusations of fraud don't track fraud, they track controversy; the most fraud often happens in polls that nobody particularly objects to, because nobody was paying attention.

Unless you have a graph in front of you. Fortunately, we do! So here's a brief review of the graphs that made it very, very clear to the mod team group chat that someone was playing silly buggers.

Round 1:

Davekat vs Zolu would almost even look natural, if it weren't for that enormous spike at the day 4 mark. But what a spike! And Akeshu vs Supercorp has those spikes in the middle, but the beginning stages of the graph look maybe fine... if you weren't watching for the first two days, and didn't get to see the progression:

Round 2:

This, on the other hand, couldn't be mistaken for natural by anyone. Look at this nonsense. The stairstep lines! The sharpness of the peaks! The sharpness of the dropoffs, which is how you can tell that this isn't just the poll being reblogged by large accounts, it is one person putting in truly insane amounts of effort! The fraud continuing long after Hualian had a significant lead, apparently just to make sure Buddie couldn't possibly launch a counteroffensive! Isn't it beautiful!

Round 4-5:

And once again, Hualian voters— or, well, some particular Hualian voter— goes nuts. Usually in 1-day polls, the votes come in fast enough that even with a graph it's hard to see if anything's gone wonky. Not so here; that bend in both graphs at around the same time, where I can only assume our frauder stopped for the night and went to bed, is a work of art.

Round 6:

No visible irregularities in the graphs (I assume they were just happy with getting to the semifinals?) but I did see this ask pop up:

I didn't see responses from anyone who took them up on it.

Real talk: This sort of thing is the reason I run poll brackets. This is proof that one person with insane dedication and a lot of time really can be the backbone of a fandom. This is, and I know this is melodramatic but I am being entirely sincere here, a chart of human passion.

Davekat, Akeshu, and especially Hualian— someone loves you very, very much.

[hiemaldesirae]

im a proud tv fucker